How perplexing decision-making gradually dismantled the Red Sox

We all knew it even if we didn't want too. The Boston Red Sox lowballed Xander Bogaerts before the 2022 season with an offer of four years and $90 million, a slap-in-the-face for a four-time All-Star, two-time World Series champion, and five-time silver slugger who functioned as the focal point for one of the best offenses in MLB history in 2018, and more broadly became a cultural focal point for a team that stayed competitive and generally exciting for almost a decade.

Now, Bogaerts is gone. He signed an 11-year, $280 million deal with the San Diego Padres, a team that is one great starting pitcher away from being in the World Series conversation.

At face value, you could make the argument that the Padres are taking a risk by signing a shortstop who just turned 30 and won't be an unrestricted free agent until he's 41. But that argument becomes moot when you consider it's right in line with other players of Bogaerts' caliber are receiving and will receive. And, at the very least, the Padres are showing allegiance to a guy who deserves it.

The contract that the Sox originally offered after the 2021 season would've given Bogaerts $20 million a year for three straight years, which is essentially the same amount he would've made if he didn't opt out of his original contract.

When looking at the recent Trea Turner deal, which was 11 years for $300 million, the optics of Bloom's mishaps a year ago grow even more apparent.

Outside of Turner and Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson were the other two superstar shortstops seeking large deals this offseason (both are still waiting on a deal). By just looking at major statistical categories like wRC+ and fWAR, Bogaerts was right up there with the big dogs (he finished only behind Correa for the former and Turner, Swanson, and Lindor in the latter). His on-base percentage, meanwhile, was the highest among shortstops in 2022 by a large margin. Bogaerts also had the second highest WAR among shortstops since 2015, trailing only Lindor--who's played less games! Sure, Bogaerts is 30, by why not reward a guy who is essentially the reason why you win every year! Seems like common sense to me.

But the Sox couldn't pull the trigger, and as a result, the gradual decline of a once historic team is almost reaching its climax. The Bogaerts loss was just one failure amidst a slew of them.

The problem recently is Boston's ownership hasn't acted the part of a big market franchise. They've generated superstar talent over the past several years but haven't used their resources to maintain their talent for long periods of time. From mindlessly trading Mookie Betts for a middle-of-the-pack player in Alex Verdugo, to mining cheap one-year deals for another incredible superstar in Rafael Devers, to the "slap-in-the-face" offer to Bogaerts, this is a Red Sox ownership and front office that continues a conservative streak with some of their household names. You can't imagine a dynasty without imagination, and you can't sustain a culture without allowing it to cultivate.

Rather than mend the cut from the lowball Bogaerts offer, the Sox continued to throw dirt on it. Incredulously, they decided to add Trevor Story to a six-year, $140 million deal before the 2022 season under the impression that Bogaerts would eventually leave. Yep, instead of doing everything in their power to maintain a generational talent, the Sox decided to basically quit early.

Story proved to be a formidable power hitter during his time in Colorado, but the higher elevation must be considered. According to Baseball Reference, since 2016, Story has always conjured a better batting average at home than away. In fact, his career batting average at home-where six out of seven years were played in Colorado-is .297 compared to .239 on the road.

Despite playing in a ballpark with the shortest left field, Story only hit 16 home runs (seven of them in a seven-game stretch in the spring) in his first year with the Sox, his lowest total since the COVID-riddled 2020 season, where only 60 games were played due to the pandemic.

It is worth noting that Story only played 97 games in 2022 due to right wrist and heel injuries, but his .238 batting average in those games was by far the lowest of his career. He also featured a career low in OPS at .737. Does Story only find success in higher elevation? Maybe. Was he just injured, and that's what caused his underwhelming season? That's a possibility too. Either way still sounds worse than actually signing Bogaerts, a guy who can hit anywhere.

Story did produce the fifth highest WAR (Wins Above Repalcement) on the team and added much needed defense to a squad that committed some costly errors in 2021 (they ranked 17th in team errors per game in 2022 compared to 29th in 2021, according to TeamRankings).

But then again, does Story's plus defense really matter in this context? People may make the argument that Bogaerts' defense is his one Achilles heel, but the advanced numbers actually show major improvement. After being in the negative range for Defensive Runs Saved Above Average and Total Fielding Runs Above Average for most of his career, Bogaerts was actually worth 14 runs above average based on the number of plays he made at shortstop in 2022, which was by far the highest of his career. Supplementing the loss of Bogaerts with Story probably won't lead to THAT much better of a defense, and it sure as hell won't lead them out of the cellar of the AL East.

The Story contract and the lack of a reasonable one for Bogaerts was head-scratching at best, dismal at worst.

Under previous GM Dave Dombrowski's tenure, the Red Sox won the World Series in 2018 by simultaneously trusting their core and making worthwhile trades to improve the fringe part of their roster and fill the holes where needed. His deft ability as a trade expert is the reason why he is the only GM to take three different franchises to the World Series (Marlins, Red Sox, and most recently, the Phillies), winning two in the process. Unlike Bloom, Dombrowski understands player worth and how indispensable superstars truly are, and most importantly, he knows how to navigate big markets. With luxury tax thresholds rising and the Red Sox attendance always above the league average, there's zero reason for Bloom to demolish a successful core through a frugal approach. Look at the Golden State Warriors in the NBA. Sure, they have the highest payroll, but they built a culture of sustained success by paying their best players handsomely and embracing continuity--in other words, trusting their stars to get it done.

But the Red Sox ownership gave up on Dombrowski early because they questioned the viability of fielding the most expensive team baseball after an underwhelming 2019. So, ownership took a shortsighted approach and fired him, even though the core three of Betts, Bogaerts and Devers were still playing at high levels (people also forget that the Sox had no closer and Cora made the odd decision of batting Benintendi leadoff instead of Betts).

In Bloom, the Sox hired someone who spent the majority of his career fielding competitive Tampa Bay Rays teams. But dealing with a small market franchise is a lot different than finding success in the big market landscape. In Tampa, Bloom showed a tenacity for finding and developing quality starting pitching (he wrote the "Rays Way" handbook in 2008) but bringing that "Moneyball" approach doesn't work for every team. When Bloom arrived, the Sox were already well-developed and just needed a few moves to return to prominence.

Instead, I oftentimes can't tell if Bloom is committing arson or accidentally starting stove fires. Either way, the house burns down.

He's made meager offers to Devers, Bogaerts and Betts but extended the always fickle Sale for five years at $30 million a year and went all in on Story. There's no continuity or culture-building, just perplexing decision-making.

The after-effect of these unusual decisions is a team left with little identity. The 2022 trade deadline was another peculiar time. Bloom traded Christian Vasquez to the American League rival Houston Astros for a bevy of prospects. While the return wasn't bad, the Sox replaced a cultural staple by signing former Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire...who was arrested last February for publicly masturbating.

And what did Vasquez do? He went on to win a World Series with Houston and caught the game in the World Series where four Astros pitchers threw a combined no-hitter.

So far in the 2022 offseason, Bloom and ownersip continue to leave fans bewildered about the direction of the franchise.

For example, the organization signed All-Star closer Kenley Jansen and serviceable relievers in Joely Rodriguez and Chris Martin. All three have impressive pedigrees and will surely improve a team that featured the fifth worst ERA in baseball a year ago but considering their ages (both Martin and Jansen are almost 40), the signings would probably look better if they rounded out a team on the fringe of making the World Series. Based on the loss of Bogaerts and positive offseason moves by the Yankees and Blue Jays, I'd say these bullpen moves the Red Sox made won't lead them out of the basement of the AL East.

The Sox also signed Masataka Yoshida, a two-time Nippon Pacific League batting champ who hit .327 in seven seasons of Nippon professional baseball in Japan. The raw stats clearly show All-Star potential, but it's odd that Bloom would pursue a longer and more lucrative contract with an unproven MLB player instead of just re-signing the always reliable Bogaerts, especially since they're both virtually the same age. If Bloom was pragmatic, he'd sign both.

Instead, the Red Sox are now 17th in payroll and void of any sense of direction. After low-balling Mookie and Bogaerts, the front office is doing the same thing with Devers in an attempt to avoid arbitration with measly one-year contracts. I wouldn't be surprised if Devers is also spending his prime on another team in the very near future.

Bloom's nauseating approach to manning a front office is leaving a giant question mark throughout the annals of Fenway Park. There's obvious talent at the farm level (Tristan Casas and starter Brayan Bello could be legitimately great), but there's also a feeling of lost potential. 2018 shouldn't have been a fleeting moment, it should've been the start of the next baseball dynasty.